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WELCOME TO THE HOMEPAGE OF RUNE LIKVERN

 

CONTENTS

 

 

E-MAIL: RUNE LIKVERN 

 

 

 

 


    ABOUT RUNE LIKVERN

This website is intended to communicate information about and offer samples of products and

services offered by RUNE LIKVERN.

 

RUNE LIKVERN is an independent energy advisor committed to provide quality in-depth analysis, advises, information, creative approaches and services on assignments related to energy as specified and given some examples of below.

RUNE LIKVERN normally works against a Scope of Work (SOW) and is open for alternative arrangements suitable for specific tasks.

 

 

 

 

 

RUNE LIKVERN chose the webadress petrovalue in acknowledgment of the potency and versatility of petroleum as an energy source, which relative importance looks to grow, as a credible alternative yet hasn’t emerged.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUNE LIKVERN chose the name petrovalue for his homepage in acknowledgement of the potency and versatility of petroleum as an energy source, which relative importance looks to increase, as credible alternatives still hasn’t emerged.

 
 
 


source, which as of now, also most likely will be of great importance for the foreseeable future, as a credible alternative still is to emerge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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 PRODUCTS AND SERVICES RELATED TO NCS

           

 

·         NCS AND FIELD BY FIELD ACTUAL AND FORECAST PETROLEUM RECOVERIES
(RESERVES AND PRODUCTION PROFILES)                                    

·         ANALYSES AND MANAGEMENT SUPPORT ON NCS PORTFOLIOS                     

·         ASSESSMENT SCREENING STUDIES ON NCS FIELD(S) AND/OR PORTFOLIOS

  • Field(s) assessment screening studies
  • Value chain analyses
  • Estimates on remaining recoverable petroleum
  • Identification of value drivers
  • Projected production profiles
  • Cash flow analyses
  • Field history
  • NPV estimates
  • R/P estimates
  • Evaluation on project economics

                                                                                                                                                             

                                                             Sample of an analysis of a field on NCS   BRAGE    PDF-FILE, 238 kB

                                                                                                                     

 

Some samples of products offered;  SAMPLES   PDF-FILE, 147 kB

                                                                      

Tekstboks: RUNE LIKVERN uses the latest available NCS production data as published by NPD (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate), to bring the most reliable and current information which can provide your company with the data and analyses it needs on a regular basis in a consistent format. The NCS production data has been reformatted into dedicated databases thus adding flexibility and versatility that eases presentations and analysis of any NCS portfolio or past trends giving future directions. Actual field data of past production is subject to statistical regression analysis and in-depth evaluations to project future recovery profiles and technically recoverable OIL, CONDENSATE and NGL’s. The production profiles thus generated can easily be subjected to economical analysis through the use of dedicated databases for field OPEX, transport and processing tariffs and CAPEX. RUNE LIKVERN can assist you to identify and maintain the information you need for business decisions. RUNE LIKVERN knows energy data and understands it use.
 


ACTUAL AND FORECAST PETROLEUM

RECOVERY FROM NCS

 

The illustration to the right shows actual, as of end 2003, and projected petroleum recoveries from NCS.

(All producing and sanctioned fields as of end 2003)

 

OIL (all liquids) had a high in 2001, and is expected to continue its decline.

 

By early next decade natural gas looks to become the dominant source of primary energy exports from Norway.

 

The graphical presentation may also be presented by,

  • Areas
  • Fields
  • Companies

 

Source actual data as of end 2003: NPD

Forecast: RUNE LIKVERN
 

 

 

 

 

 

NATURAL  GAS

 

The graphical presentation to the right identifies the relative distribution of equity volumes of natural gas from NCS (pipelined) between the major companies for 2003.

 

It is possible to split the companies’ historical and projected gas volumes by;

  • Source (field)
  • Estimated remaining reserves
  • Point of inlet
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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WORLD ENERGY

                       

   What are recent energy trends?....... What shapes future energy prices? .......How important are energy storage facilities?.......Why do so many refer to ENERGY as our most valueable commodity?....... What may happen in a market where several strong players compete about a dwindling energy supply?.......What is "peak oil"?

 

 

 

DO WE REALLY UNDERSTAND ENERGY?

Ø      Conventional wisdom thinks energy supplies is abundant and it costs will steadily fall
(Moore’s Law).

Ø      Alternative energy sources will ultimately replace fossil energy sources.

Ø      Supply will always rise, especially if the price increases.

Ø      OPEC has inexpensive oil supplies that will last for decades.

Ø      Free market energy works.


COULD ALL THE ABOVE BE WRONG?

ACTUAL TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL AND NA

 

 

SPLIT ON

 

 

 

 

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION

SHOWS STEADY GROWTH

 

The illustration to the right shows the recent years growth in energy consumption from the major energy sources.

 

As of the late 60’s OIL became the dominant global energy source, taking over for COAL, which recently sees strong growth mainly due to increased consumption within China and USA.

 

NATURAL GAS has to some extent substituted COAL for environmental and convenience reasons, and has seen steady growth and gained popularity in recent years.

 

Energy consumption from HYDRO and NUCLEAR has recently experienced less growth than fossil energy sources.
 



WORLD OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITIES CONTINUES TO GROW

 

The illustration to the right shows the split in oil production for OPEC, FSU and ROW.

 

OPEC and FSU share of the world oil production has seen steady growth through the last ten years. ROW oil production has remained virtually flat in the same period, and saw a slight decline in 2003 relative to 2002.

 

Volatile and increasing oil prices through 2004 seem to be of structural nature related to low global spare capacities for oil production.

 

 

 

 

 

 

FSU; Former Soviet Union

ROW; Rest Of World
 

 

 

 

What interactions are there between oil consumption and energy consumption from other sources within the energy mix?

 

 



 

 

WILL THE FORCES OF

ENERGY AND CHINA UNITE?

 

The illustration to the right shows the recent years development in energy consumption within China, split on primary energy sources.

 

Through the last ten years, 1993 to 2003, OIL consumption has almost doubled.

 

China is presently the second largest OIL consumer in the world.

 

Will future global energy supplies grow sufficient to fuel a continued economical growth for China?

 

Measured in MTOE, COAL consumption has grown approximately twice as much as OIL consumption during the same period.

 

China held 11-12 % of global proven COAL reserves at end 2003.

SOURCE: BP STATISTICAL REVIEW 2004

 
 

 

 

 

 

USA DEPENDENCE ON OIL

IMPORTS GROWS

 

The illustration to the right shows the recent years development in US domestic OIL production, OIL consumption and net imports of OIL.

 

US OIL production peaked in 1970 and has been in decline since. An increased consumption has resulted in greater dependency on OIL supplies from more remote areas.
 

 

 

 

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   DEVELOPMENTS IN US NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES AND CONSUMPTION

 

 

US NAT GAS SUPPLIES TRENDS

 

The illustration to the right shows recent years actual development for US nat gas supplies and consumption patterns within the defined sectors.

 

As from 2001 North American nat gas supplies has been in a slight decline, partly offset by increased imports of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).

 

Presently nat gas relative part in the total US energy mix is 24 %.

 

US nat gas prices at the wellhead have almost tripled since 1999 due to supply driven price increases.

 

RUNE LIKVERN has, as of now, identified the US nat gas developments as possibly the most interesting shaping future US energy development.

 
 

 

 

 

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     PRODUCTS AND SERVICES RELATED TO WORLD ENERGY SUPPLIES

 

 

·         In depth analysis of actual energy trends and possible future developments.

·         National, regional or world supplies, consumption and energy mix

·         Degree of interchange abilities between energy sources

·        Participation in studies/research related to energy

·         In depth analyses of US energy consumption and supplies

·         Seminars and education

 

Actual data based upon BP Statistical Review (latest edition), EIA International Energy Outlook (latest edition)

In depth analysis of US energy supplies, possible supply, demand and development trends based upon latest available EIA data.

 

Can you answer the following questions?

Oil prices has on average put on more than $10 per barrel since 2003, despite the call
from some OPEC members to increase production.

·         What are the prospects of OIL prices retreating to $30 per barrel?

·         What are the risks of even higher prices?

·         What is the right price of OIL?

 

 

 

 

  

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     RUNE LIKVERN ENERGY NEWSLETTERS AND PRESENTATIONS

 

The intention with these newsletters is to provide up to date information, analysis and comments on developments on NCS and international energy supplies and how these may develop in and shape the future.

 

NEWSLETTER NOV 2004   PDF FILE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


              ©2004RUNE LIKVERN                      E-MAIL: RUNE LIKVERN

 

RUNE LIKVERN

Stølstunet 40

N - 4027 Stavanger

NORWAY

 

                                Mobile phone (47) 975 83 261

 

 

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